GIRI THE GALLIVANTER

 + December is here and it's time for Disaster  Depressions. A line of cyclonic depression are ahead for us!!   + We use to say The KingMaker MJO, and it is proven once again!!  Image Credits : Meteologix

300mm+ Rainfall In No Time of 2 Days, Highly Possible!! ⛈️ 🌪️  + The most anticipated system is expected to form tomorrow in Bay of Bengal.   + Global models have come into agreement with the system track and rainfall. 

 + Coastal and coastal interior Tamilnadu will see widespread heavy rains tomorrow as fresh upper air cyclonic circulation forms over Bay of Bengal today and moves towards Tamilnadu coast.  Picture Credits : EarthNullSchool   + Widespread heavy rains possible for Coimbatore Belt, including Tiruppur and Erode.   + From 9th October(1 day later of the time frame we anticipated 10 day's earlier), South Interior Tamilnadu and Interior Karnataka heavy rainfall activity has been forecasted.  Picture Credits : TropicalTidBits GFS Weather Model of India - 6 to 336 Run    + This UAC associated spell will be present for the next 4 days.  Picture Credits : EarthNullSchool  + Kerala-TN Ghat Areas will experience heavy rainfall and high chances of landslides on 09/10-Oct. Picture Credits : Meteoblue Chennai 14-day Forecast     + Farmer's and common people  - Plan your work accordingly with this f...

KTC Thunderstorms Today | Tamilnadu Ends With 60% Excess Rains | Kerala Flood Hazard :  + Due to wind instability prevailing at mid-levels, Thunderstorms are set to continue in KTC, Vellore, Ranipet, Villupuram today as well. Image Credits : Meteoblue  + Wind Instability would provide an atmosphere conductive for thunderstorms. + Apart from Wind Instability, some of the environmental criterias are too supportive as well, for thunderstorm this evening / night.   + The CAPE (Convectional Available Potential Energy) value near KTC region during late evening- night is over than 2000-2500J/kg.  + CAPE energy is like fuel for thunderstorms to intensify.  Image Credits : Meteoblue  + Lifted index well ranging from -4 to -7 and this should be adequate enough for intensification of thunderstorms while nearing the coasts.   + Lifted index is generally used to measure instability in the atmosphere to determine the thunderstorm...

ALERT - Severe Heat Wave Across Tamil Nadu!!  + Formation of Cyclone in Bay of Bengal by start of May 2nd week. System is expected to landfall near Bangladesh / Myanmar.   + This will suck all the moisture in the land across the Southern States of India and make the atmosphere more dry. Image Credits : TropicalTidBits-GFS-India  + Therefore, Severe Heat wave across Southern States of India like Tamilnadu, Andhra and Odissa.   + Coastal districts are going to be sandwiched with severe heat waves both from the sea and land.   + Chennai should start prepare for it from April 30, as many 40+ temperatures possible for North and Delta Tamilnadu. Image Credits : EarthNullSchool  + Kongu belt and south interior Tamilnadu will get isolated heavy rains from Saturday dur to pull effect.   + Westerlies will strengthen and keep temperature in check for west interior TN districts, especially during evening - night hour's.   ...

TN's 1st System of 2022 & 15th Overall In The History of March Month : + Late Feb / March is not the time to track disturbances in the Bay.   + But, it's time for that as, nature can surprise at times. A good distraction during off-season.  + Both GFS and ECM indicating formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal and heavy rain from Mar 03-06 in and around Central Coastal TN and Delta Districts.  Image Credits : TropicalTidBits-GFS-India  + Heavy Rains possible btw 04-06 Mar, 2022 :  Coastal Districts From Pondy to Rameshwaram. Interior Delta Districts like Thanjavur, Trichy etc. South Interior District like Nellai etc. Eastern sides of The Western Ghats of Tamilnadu like Pollachi, Valparai, Kodaikanal, Manjolai.etc.  + Chennai should receive light to moderate rain spells from this system between 04( From Evening) - 06 Mar (Noon), as the landfall still indicates over Sri Lanka / btw Central - South TN (Near Pondy).  ...

Nov 26-30 Deadlock System of 2021 : Massive rains started in South Tamil Nadu from yesterday with further increased intensity today. Especially, Tuticorin district thrashed today. Other Interiors too got rains. Rains will continue there in South TN. Image Desc : South TN & Kerala Getting Smashed Today Coastal TN :  * So coming on to main topic, coastals like Chennai didn't score much till now. I have explained by maps below, refer to that. Ideal location for a CC (Near Sri Lanka) to give widespread rains across Tamilnadu.  Image Desc : Saturday & Sunday - System Stuck As Deadlock Between High Pressure And Low Pressure Areas * Models showing that this CC will stay (ANGAIYE SETTLE AAIDUM) for 1-2 days. So more rains expected in Tamil Nadu in the coming days. Heavy rains possible in coastal districts :  * Nov 26th to 30th rains will be at its peak over Coastal Tamilandu. Especially Saturday and Sunday MS (Moist Surge) seen right from Chennai t...

TN Rain Alert : 07-Nov-2021 To 12-Nov-2021 Image Credits : EarthNullSchool Cyclone Alert : A Break From Heavy Spells! Till Tonight (11:00PM) : -> Chennai-Pondy Coastal Belt : Moderate Rains. -> Chennai-Pondy Interior : Heavy Rains. Tonight 11:00PM - Tomorrow 11:00AM :  -> Chennai-Pondy Coastal and Interiors : HEAVY Rains.  -> MODERATE Spells, Mostly Concentrating South of Chennai and Western (Interior) Districts. Tomorrow 11:00AM - 08:00PM :  -> Chennai : Moderate Rains. -> Maha-Cuddalore Belt : Heavy Rains (Both Coastal and Interiors). Tomorrow 08:00PM - Tuesday Morning : Chennai : Light Rains. Maha - Cuddalore Coastal Belt : Heavy Rains.  Maha - Cuddalore Interior : Moderate Rains.  Tuesday :  Break Day, will high winds across Coastal Areas of TN, pulling towards the Bay. Wednesday - Friday Evening :  Cyclone Rain Starts to pour down across TN. Expected Landfall : Thursday Night in Depression State, Near To Chennai (+-7...

⚡ MJO Entry!! : Back To Back Cyclonic Events Ahead For Tamil Nadu  ⛈️  Image Credits : Windy Rain Break To Coastal TN : * Break!Break!! Break!!! Rain break to coastal TN till Nov 9.  * Light isolated spells due to pull effect will start from tomorrow (not much intense).  * Chennai People - Plan to dry your cloths or any outing plans during these days are great days ahead from Non 10. Pull Effect Rains - Interior And Ghat Areas : * Interior and Ghat areas of TN to be watched for for the next 3-4 days. * Pull-effect rains from Arabial Sea Low bringing good spells over Ghat and Interior distrocts of Tamil Nadu till Nov 10. Cyclone Event 2 : GIF Credits : Tropical Titbits * Nov 10-15 will be the days to watch-out for. Our 2nd NE Monsoon LPA System will be nearing the TN Coast and this will be the highly possible rain event rather than just a cyclone.  MJO Entry : * As MJO wil be entering phase 3 & 4 at the same time, an LPA formation is for sure....

Tamil Nadu Rains : 1st Low Pressure Area From North-East Monsoon 2021   And Back To Back LPA Waiting On The Bay The weak Low Pressure Area (LPA) between south of Tamilnadu and Sri Lanka, continue to stay at same location.  Image Credits : EarthNullSchool This LPA's circulation dumping good moist Easterly winds over entire TN coast & interiors, producing good cloud bands.  A system in Gulf of Mannar almost always result in widespread rains over TN, as it will streamline easterlies in sumptuous manner towards coasts.  Low pressure areas are generally slow moving, moisture rich, which also aids in widespread clouding over its surroundings.  Rains will occur in multiple spells(at any time of the day over coasts), and it can be heavy at times. The official met agency (IMD) also warns of heavy to very heavy rains to occur in 4 or 5 places over TN between 2nd and 4th November. Rains to continue in coastal TN including Chennai (with breaks). More cloud b...

Upcoming Rainfall Event - Child of Cyclone Gulab Towards Tamilnadu Between 30 Sept - 04 Oct, 2021 [NE Monsoon Onset] : + A child of Gulab Cyclone which made its landfall 1 day back near Odissa-North Andhra Pradesh, is expected to form as a new overlying cyclone between September 30 and October 1 in the adjoining area of ​​the south-eastern Bay of Bengal.  Image Credits : EarthNullSchool + It is likely to move west-wards towards Sri Lanka / South-western Bay of Bengal! Image Credits : EarthNullSchool + Therefore, Coastal areas Chennai To Kanyakumari are likely to receive moderate to heavy showers as the convection (வெப்பச்சலனம்) is favorable. GFS Model Credits : TropicalTidBits + There is a chance of heavy rain at times in the Western Ghats and in the North Tamil Nadu. + Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Krishnagiri And North Coast will receive heavy rainfall during this period, as the cyclone is expected to make its...

UAC August 2021 - North TN & South AP : Upcoming UAC To Bring Massive Rains From Aug 11 To Aug 18 : + Aug 11 : Tonight moderate thunderstorms. + Aug 12 : Tomorrow morning break.  + Aug 12 - 14 : Tomorrow afternoon starts the massive spell whill will continue till Saturday with 80:20 break ratio.  + Aug 15 : Sunday : Break with some drizzling-linght rains to continue with lilittle bit of sunshine.  + Aug 15 - 16 : Sunday Night - Monday Evening : Again a great day with convergence happening from the outerbands as the eye of the UAC will be near to North AP, Chennai wil be in perfect position for the outerbands to fall over us. + Aug 17 - 18 : Later we've a day of break followed by another band of rains on 18th (Wednesday).  ------- North Interior / Delta / South TN :  + Till tomorrow afternoon, North Interior, Delta and South Coastal TN will receive massive rains from the pull-effect of the UAC, from the passing clouds, where the rains will be isolated and hea...

Chennai & KTC Special Post And Weather Synopsis For Tamilnadu : Image Credits : EarthNullSchool + With monsoon heading for a short break, westerlies expected to weaken from tomorrow and thunderstorms expected to increase likely in many parts of North and Central Tamilnadu.  + South will also see isolated heavy thunderstorms next 1 week. + GFS Model have been consistent about a formation of a system moving near NTN-SAP coasts past few days and ECM has also started to pick an UAC near TN coasts. + With formation of UAC highly possible, very intense thunderstorms likely to bloom in various parts of Tamillnadu, especially North Coastal and North Interiors due to favourable convergence. + KTC region could also see heavy thunderstorms / widespread thunderstorms starting from tonight. + Coastal places could be benefitted, including Chennai city which may see a great August after a spectacular July. Image Credits : TropicalTidBits - GFS Model

Upcoming Low Pressure Area And Reduce In Rains Across Tamil Nadu - 20210606 : * South West Monsoon Going to Became Vigrous. Image Courtesy : www.windy.com

SOUTH-WEST MONSOON ONSET : * In general, the onset of South-West Monsoon over Kerala usually arrive on June 1st of every year.  * Depending upon the onset of SW Monsoon over Kerala only, we (TN) will start having consistent SW Monsoon Rains.  * Check out the SOUTHWEST MONSOON ONSET (Average) Date Below.. Image Credits : India.com

Reduce In Day-Time Temperature And Thunderstorm Possibilities  Across Tamil Nadu  : Veppa Salanam Rains Are In Action!! - Day temperature to reduce over Tamil Nadu from tomorrow for next 1 week atleast. Few places in North Coastal and Western districts shall receive thunderstorm rains tomorrow! - As the surface level wind change it's direction to South-Easterly from tomorrow, day time heat will get reduced across the state. This also results in convergence of hot land wind and sea breeze, producing thunderstorms across coastal TN & South AP.  - Chennai to Pondy stretch, few places shall receive passing showers during sunrise and post sunset hours.  - Western parts and Western Ghat districts shall receive good thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon or evening! - There are also possibilities for convergence over interior TN districts. Depending upon the day time heat, the thunderstorms will vary in intense. ⛈️

Cyclone Nivar Towards Chennai, Tamilnadu - Landfall expected on 27th Nov, 2020 : * New system has been developed in the bay of Bengal and termed as Cyclone Nivar by IMD. There is also another system (termed as Cyclone B below) just below Andaman Islands.  * You can see the High-Pressure Ridge @West-Central India, which pushes the system down towards South / South-West towards Tuty-Kanya Kumari (Refer below image). PC : EarthNullSchool ------- * This push will remain active for the next couple of days. But the low won't be calling before next 2 days. Hence, there won't be chances for the low-pressure to hit South TN,  * The reason for the delay in Cyclone Nivar 's landfall is it was stuck in the bay and intensifying in the same location due to the pull-effect from Cyclone-B (which is expected to hit TN Coast by Dec 4). PC : EarthNullSchool ------- * The Western Disturbance will work in opposite side of pt.1, which will pull the system towards North TN...

Cause Of Up-coming LPA : * Even when we are at the withdrawal stage of South-West Monsoon, a low pressure area has been formed over the Andaman Islands. 

Image Source :  Madden-Julian Oscillation : CPC-NCEP-NOAA Introduction : * Starting from this friday (10th July, 2020), we can see gradual decrease in day and night temperature across the state, Tamil Nadu. 

(Scroll down for 23rd June, 2020 Update)