Upcoming Rainfall Event - Child of Cyclone Gulab Towards Tamilnadu Between 30 Sept - 04 Oct, 2021 [NE Monsoon Onset] :

Upcoming Rainfall Event - Child of Cyclone Gulab Towards Tamilnadu Between 30 Sept - 04 Oct, 2021 [NE Monsoon Onset] :

+ A child of Gulab Cyclone which made its landfall 1 day back near Odissa-North Andhra Pradesh, is expected to form as a new overlying cyclone between September 30 and October 1 in the adjoining area of ​​the south-eastern Bay of Bengal. 

Image Credits : EarthNullSchool

+ It is likely to move west-wards towards Sri Lanka / South-western Bay of Bengal!

Image Credits : EarthNullSchool

+ Therefore, Coastal areas Chennai To Kanyakumari are likely to receive moderate to heavy showers as the convection (வெப்பச்சலனம்) is favorable.

GFS Model Credits : TropicalTidBits

+ There is a chance of heavy rain at times in the Western Ghats and in the North Tamil Nadu.

+ Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Vellore, Thiruvannamalai, Krishnagiri And North Coast will receive heavy rainfall during this period, as the cyclone is expected to make its landfall atleast in depression state which will result in less wind and more rain kind-off event.

+ South Interior parts of Tamil Nadu also will be in the party for a week with reduce in day temperature and isolated discontinuous spells. 

+ Tamil Nadu Ghat areas like Coimbatore, Pollachi, Valparai, Kodaikanal, Dindukal, Theni, Tenkasi, Nellai, Nagerkoil and Kanyakumari and North parts of Kerala will be under the party with drastic reduction in temperature and increase in continuous rainfall. 

+ Chennai Rains usually can be expected during late evening - early morning time period.

+ When the day heat is more, get ready for intense night spells during these 5 days period.

Image Credits : MeteoBlue - 14 Day Weather Analysis

Memories : 

+ 3 years back, Widespread rainfall of 10 cm was recorded in Chennai on October 4 due to similar type of wind circulation from the south-western Bay of Bengal on October 3.

+ The epi-center was reported below the Pacific Ocean floor, however; no tsunami alert was issued.

+ Then at the same time two storms formed in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea at the same time. 

+ That time we got bluffed as this event delayed the onset of North-East Monsoon till 1st of November.

+ This time, it looks like it's okay to give it some rain but our aim is not to be disappointed!

+ Normally during the northeast monsoon season the cyclone (or) baro-metric pressure (or) in the north-western part of the Bay of Bengal develops and moves towards the west. 

Some GFS Model Expectations :

+ There is a chance of heavy rain. Let's wait and monitor!

 

Image Credits : Meteolologix, Windy, TropicalTidBits