SOUTH-WEST MONSOON ONSET :
* In general, the onset of South-West Monsoon over Kerala usually arrive on June 1st of every year.
* Depending upon the onset of SW Monsoon over Kerala only, we (TN) will start having consistent SW Monsoon Rains.
* Check out the SOUTHWEST MONSOON ONSET (Average) Date Below..
MJO COMING.. OTHU..⛈️ :
Image Credits : cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
* We can expect 2021 1st Arabian sea cyclone moving towards Yemen / oman around may mid.
* Interior Tamilnadu and kerala will get heavy rains till system form's in south east Arabian sea.
* If cyclone forms in Arabian sea, there will be strong pull of easterlies stabilizing our atmosphere.
* MJO will move very slowly to phase 3, 4 or loop back again towards phase 1, 2, 3 providing conditions for South-West monsoon arrival by May end itself.
* If 1st case thunderstorms will prolong and monsoon onset may be bit delayed.
* I personally love MAY Month as it's the phase where our South-West monsoon dynamics builds up in our basin and also we can expect violent thunderstorms as inter-tropical convergence zone shifts from Southern Hemisphere to Northern Hemisphere.
* Check out the "Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution and Current Status" here.
IMPACT IF & ELSE CYCLONE :
* I'm expecting slightly above normal Routh-West monsoon for India this year.
* Rains will not be equally spread over 4 months. Any 1 or 2 months, should provide us some massive recordings.
TIME FOR REGULAR RAINS OVER INTERIOR TAMIL NADU :
* Interior parts of Tamil Nadu, especially areas near to the Western ghats like Coimbatore, Pollachi, Valparai, Dindukal, Kodai Road, Tenkasi, Nellai, Manjolai, Nagerkoil and Kanyakumari will start receiving daily rains which will vary between moderate to heavy intensity sometimes.
* South Coastal districts like Tuty, Ramnad, Nagai might receive light to moderate rains sometimes as sea breeze will be entering with moisture. Most probably such rains will occur at the time of sunrise, night and sunset.
* Delta will be under control with good isolated spells as well as temperature ticking 40° sometimes.
* Chennai rains are cat on the wall till we enter June month. Some places might receive isolated spells. If cyclone is formed, then we've good condition for 2-3 days on rains. But, this will impact the SW Monsoon Onset. So, let us wait for something worthy!
WILL SWM ONSET ERADICATE CORONA :
* We all know that South-west monsoon is a savior for Indian Farmers.
* As some studies suggest COVID spreads less in moist conditions, I'm not an expertise in this. So, I personally believe it won't have any major impact over COVID as we've also witnessed New Delhi recording massive COVID numbers in peak summer season this year. So, I'll leave this topic tou you people.
* As a rain lover, I'm eagerly waiting for summer thunderstorms to boost up and South-west monsoon onset to take place over Kerala Coast.
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