TN's 1st System of 2022 & 15th Overall In The History of March Month :

TN's 1st System of 2022 & 15th Overall In The History of March Month :

+ Late Feb / March is not the time to track disturbances in the Bay. 

 + But, it's time for that as, nature can surprise at times. A good distraction during off-season.

 + Both GFS and ECM indicating formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal and heavy rain from Mar 03-06 in and around Central Coastal TN and Delta Districts. 

Image Credits : TropicalTidBits-GFS-India

 + Heavy Rains possible btw 04-06 Mar, 2022 : 

• Coastal Districts From Pondy to Rameshwaram.
• Interior Delta Districts like Thanjavur, Trichy etc.
• South Interior District like Nellai etc.
• Eastern sides of The Western Ghats of Tamilnadu like Pollachi, Valparai, Kodaikanal, Manjolai.etc.

 + Chennai should receive light to moderate rain spells from this system between 04( From Evening) - 06 Mar (Noon), as the landfall still indicates over Sri Lanka / btw Central - South TN (Near Pondy). 

Image Credits : TropicalTidBits-GFS-India

 + North Interior Districts like Vellore, Salem, Erode, Coimbatore should receive light rains btw 05-06 Mar.

Image Credits : Meteologix

 + Farmers are alerted to take necessary precautions (plan finish their work before 28-Feb.) in Delta Districts to save paddy harvest from getting damaged.

Meteoblue Chennai - 14 Day Weather Forecast :

Image Credits : Meteoblue Chennai

Conclusion :

 + Still there is enough time for the system to form and it's not 100% guarenteed that the system will hit the TN. 

 + As it's March Month, it purely depends on multiple factors like MJO Phase, Western Disturbances, SST. Etc. 

 + Considering such factors, all are looking good except the exact position of the system formation. It should be low enough in Latitude, so that it won't get stuck with the Western Disturbances. 

+ 10+cm of rain is expected on 05-Feb in & around KTCC districts. 

+ 20+cm expected in & around Pondy + Parts of Delta districts.

 + Will keep updated once the system forms and if there are any changes from current predictions.

 + This post is just for knowledge sharing purpose. Follow IMD Official Site and News.