Madden-Julian Oscillation : CPC-NCEP-NOAA
* Starting from this friday (10th July, 2020), we can see gradual decrease in day and night temperature across the state, Tamil Nadu.
A). * The MJO is emerging into the Indian Ocean and drifting about the interface between Phases 1 and 2, remained of low amplitude. This is not a good sign for a strong MJO event.
* Below image, we can see the active area of upcoming MJO event, which is only making impact on the Southern Parts of India.
Image Source :
Madden-Julian Oscillation : CPC-NCEP-NOAA
* Therefore, we(Southern Parts of India) has high chances for regular thundershowers on daily basis.
B). * A low-pressure has formed near Gujarat and this will be making its landfall near Pakistan's Karachi by tomorrow morning in a depression state (not much impact).
* After it's landfall on 9th July, (i.e.) from 10th July onwards, the westerlies are moving to the extend of North and North-East direction (Himalayan Foothills and 7 Sisters). Below image for reference..
* Therefore there isn't moisture available in North and North-West India from July 10th.
* From the above point A and B, we can conclude that the next 2 weeks, the weather across India will be as follows..
Area A :
* These are major directly impacting areas from the upcoming MJO Event.
* Max rains will be recorded in Southern Coastal and Interior regions like Trivandrum, Ernakulam, Guruvayur, Wayanad, Mangalore, Coorg, Gokarna.
* Moderate railfall across Mysore, Chikmagalur and Bangalore.
Area B :
* These are almost drought areas, which will be seeing increase in day and night temperature, upcoming days.
* Rainfall possibilities are nil.
* Might get some passing showers / drizzles, if lucky.
Area C :
* These are indirectly impacting areas from the upcoming MJO Event.
* All the moisture from The Great Himalayas (due to the westerlies moved up) will be pushed towards North-Eastern parts of India.
* These moisture winds will be halted by the high altitude mountains of 7 Sisters in the North-East.
* This will be giving thunderstorms resulting in flood.
* Nepal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Bhutan, Meghalaya, Tripura are the flood regions to be watchout for.
* Early Winter Stroms can be seen over The Great Himalayas and it turns out to be a bad time for hill climbers.
How the weather and temperature will be across TN for the next 10 days.?
* Across TN, max temperature won't be crossing 36°C from July 10.
* Chennai weather likely to be below normal (max 33-34°C) for next 10 days.
* Chennai will be seeing rains / thundershowers on daily basis in late evening - mid night time.
* Other than Chennai, areas like Vellore, Tirupattur, KTC, Ghat Areas like Kodaikanal, Pollachi, Valparai, Nilgiris, Theni.etc. will be receiving rains (light rains to isolated moderate thundershowers) on daily basis.
* Other districts, there will.be isolated discontinuous thundershowers, depending upon everyday wind convergence and divergence. But it won't be daily regular basis.
* Today's early convergence over interior districts, looking good for delta districts, Salem circle, erode, Vellore, KTCC(Mid Night), tvMalai, Tirupati and Pondy.
Expected Temperature in Chennai, as per meteoblue's multiple weather model comparison :
Cauvery Catchment Areas, Karnataka :
* There will be a steady continuous monsoon rains pour down in Cauvery Catchment Areas. Expecting good and steady inflow.
When we can expect the next cyclone to form over Indian Sea .?
* It's far away from us. Have to wait atleast till this month-end or till the next wave of MJO to enter Indian Ocean. Untill that, there isn't any specific notable system event to occur across India.
* Only notable event is there will be occurance of Thunderstorms, resulting in flood over North-Eastern parts of India like Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, will be rocking with great spells. ⛈️🌲
* After July 13 : KTCC should have atleast 1 good spell / day.
Current Weak MJO Position and Details : mjo.pdf
Comments
Post a Comment