Upcoming System Update :
Expected position and intensity as on 17th May, 2020 (Sunday).
Description :
The upcoming formation near Andaman Islands is just an indication of beginning of South-West Monsoon.
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For understanding of how South-West monsoon is triggered :
Due to the rapid rise in temperature in the month of may over North-West India the air pressure decreases and hence to fill up this area of lower air pressure, the air is suck in from all 3 oceans down south i.e; Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal.
The Easterlies Winds (permanent East-to-West prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's Equatorial Region) also join the air circulation over India as the South Westerly Wind.
Thus, the South-West monsoon strikes @ the coast of Kerala in the first week of June and slowly it extends towards North (North West).
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Along with the above understanding, the weakness of MJO (which will arrived) is also a point to be noted. From this, it's clear that the system formed near Andaman doesn't have it's strength, both to withstand as well as to travel towards any land area.
Categorization :
Note :
* The image below is self explanatory.
* For further understanding, I've detailed below the image along with conclusion and my views.
Categories of How the System can Behave :
1. The system won't turnout to form as a cyclone.
2. Eventhough if it gets some strength, it might form maximum as a low-pressure area or a deep-depression.
3. Eventhough if any low-pressure area / deep-depression gets formed, it gets weaken in the ocean (Bay of Bengal) itself.
4. By rare case, if it doesn't gets weak, then the system will hit Myanmar in a depression state.
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Okay. This is the update about the system. Now let us see how it is going to impact us (Tamil Nadu, especially Chennai).
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From the above listed 4 points, we can conclude or precise it under 2 categories for Tamil Nadu.
A. If 1 or 2 or 3 is the case if occurrence, then we are in safer side.
B. If 3 or 4 is the case of occurrence, then we aren't.
Here, the safer side I meant was not the rain, but the heat..
Also I've mentioned category 3 in both the cases (A & B) bcoz, we need the exact position (location) and it's strength / state of where the formation is getting weaken in the Bay.
If the formation nears to TN Coast, less than 500kms from us with full strength (TN Coast), then it's done. It will suck all the moisture across South Indian States, especially TN and Andhra and this increases the temperature (can expect more then 40°C in Chennai).
If the formation is 500kms away from TN Coast (obviously it will be weak), then we are in safer zone. Bcoz, we will be starting with regular Pre-South-West Monsoon rains. Also there is a chance of new circulation along the South Coastal TN, near Sri Lanka.
Conclusion :
Let us wait for the formation to conclude it's state among the listed down 4 categories first. Then we will be clear of what will happen (Either A or B) to TN and Chennai.
My Personal Views :
Tamil Nadu Update / Impact :
* Cyclone won't be forming at all. But there will be deep-depression / low pressure and this will near towards TN-AP, then change its direction towards West Bengal. This sucks 50-70% of the moisture across TN (bcoz of the distance and strength causing pull effect) and hence, we can see drastic and instant raise in temperature.
* We(Chennai) can see some pull-effect rains between Saturday Night to Tuesday Night during night times. But it won't be intense.
* The raise in day temperature will be present for 1 week to 10 days, starting from this Saturday.
Kerala Update / Impact :
* Due to this formation, we can expect the massive pull-effect across Kerala and also expecting the start of South West Monsoon across Kerala soon. (Last year, it was June 6th when SW Monsoon arrived Kerala. This year, I'm expecting the date to be more in advance).
* Kerala Ghat areas like Munnar, Wayanad, Thodupuzha. Etc will be getting thunderstorms and gusty winds.
* This intense thunderstorms accompanied with gusty wind for continuous 2 days are sure. Stay safe.
North East India Update / Impact :
* Meanwhile, the pre-monsoon thunderstorm continues unabated over the North-East.
* There will be widespread thundershowers over the hills of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and it's, during the period of May 13-16.
North and North West :
* Meanwhile, this location is the reason for all the above behaviour and hence, it continues to dominate with its high temperature (over 40°C) Olin upcoming week.
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