Cyclone Amphan Update : What we can Expect.?
Curvy path of Cyclone Amphan through large CAPE value
The system is expected to take a curvy path and hit in-between Odissa and West Bengal on 21st May, 2020. This path has large SST and CAPE value.
What is SST and CAPE.?
In general, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is the only oceanographic parameter used in the models for cyclone prediction. CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm.
Technically, CAPE is a good indication that severe thunderstorms containing large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes are likely. Higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather.
What we can expect.?
* The outer bands of the system formed in the bay (Cyclone Amphan, now in depression state) is expected to brush the Tamil Nadu Coast from tonight (refer above image). Hence, there are some light chances of rain in and around Chennai from tonight to tomorrow night. These Thunderstorms will be entering from North TN / South Andhra Coast and will be travelling towards Pondy Coast, via Chennai.
* Thunderstorms are expected in the interior states of TN, as there will be some convergence seen here and there. These Thunderstorms will then be pulled towards the coastal TN by the system. Hence, chances of rain in Chennai till tomorrow night / Monday Late Morning can be expected.
* These rains in Coastal and Interior TN, bcoz of this brusing, convergence and pull effect, will be short, discontinuous, isolated, sharp and intense spells. Enjoy whatever you get. It's all depends on luck across Interior and Coastal TN, if these rain clouds are in your path.
* After Monday Morning, as the formation in depression state gets its full energy moving along the CAPE way, it intensifies and form as a Severe Cyclonic Storm. Thus, it's going to pull all the moisture from South Indian States, especially TN and Andhra, resulting in heat wave.
* Starting from Monday till Friday, Chennai is expected to record atleast 41-42°C, while Vellore, Tirutani might tough 44°C. This heat wave is expected to be present, for atleast 4-5 days (till Friday), followed by gradual decrease in heat.
*As the MJO won't be present post this 18th, the Cyclone will be moderated to deep-depression on 20th of this month.
* The cyclone is expected to hit near Kolkata of West Bengal Coast, at the speed of 120-150kmph on 21st May (Thursday).
Expected Path of the System :
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