Weather Update as on 12 June, 2020 :

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Madden-Julian Oscillation : CPC-NCEP-NOAA

Introduction :

* Today (12 June 2020) or max tomorrow, will be the last day for the rains all over TN (except ghat areas). 

* For the next 10 days, TN will remain sunny, but with good water vapour / moisture in air (not dry like may month hereafter). 

* Therefore we can conclude the weather to be sunny without any sultry feeling, hereafter.

How the temperature will be across TN for the next 10 days.?

* KTCC, Coimbatore, Salem, Theni :  28°C min and 36°C max.

* Vellore, Madurai, Trichy, Thanjavur  might touch 38°C in the day time.

* Nellai, Manjolai, Nagerkoil, Rameswaram, KanyaKumari will remain under 33°C in day and stay cool during night.

Where we can expect rains for the next 10 days.?

* Some light rains to isolated moderate spells can be expected in Ghat Areas, especially Coimbatore-Pollachi-Valparai-Kodai-Vagamon-Meghamalai-Manjolai-Nagerkoil-KanyaKumari. 

* This won't be regular (daily routine). It depends on the intensity of cloud bands hitting Kerala, entering through the gaps of Western Ghats and giving some light spells over TN ghats. So keep the expectations low.

Cauvery Catchment Areas, Karnataka :

* There will be a steady continuous monsoon rains pour down in Cauvery Catchment Areas. Expecting good and steady inflow.

When we can expect the next cyclone to form over Indian Sea .?

* It's far away from us. Have to wait atleast till this month-end or till the next wave of MJO to enter Indian Ocean. Untill that, there isn't any specific notable event to occur across India.

* Only notable event is there is a  low-pressure area to form over the Eastern Himalayas (Mt Kanjunjanga). Therefore, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal, will be rocking with great spells. ⛈️🌲

* June 23-27 : KTCC should have atleast 1 good spell. Keep the expectations low for now. Let us wait.

Current Weak MJO Position and Details : mjo.pdf