TN Rains after Arabian System, June 2020 :

Image Source : GFS Model from Tropical TidBits

* Upcoming days, the rains will continue with some breaks in-between, over Kerala, Western Ghats and Cauvery Catchment areas (Karnataka).

* Cauvery Catchment areas (in Karnataka) will start receiving regular rains every day and the day temperature won't be touching even 24°C.

* TN Ghat areas like Nilgiris-Coimbatore-Pollachi-Valparai-Kodai-Vagamon-Theni-Thenkasi-Manjolai-Nagerkoil-Kk will have moderate rains in the evening and night time, everyday. 

        ** Depending upon the intensity and strength of clouds crossing the western ghats (Kerala-TN border) and entering TN, there might be some hit and miss everyday in these areas. 

       ** Day temperature will be less than 30°C.

* IMD has predicted a low-pressure formation near Myanmar - West Bengal and it's predicted to hit West Bengal or Orissa.

       ** But from my point of view, this won't turnout to form as a cyclone or even a deep-depression. 

       ** This is just a formation happening in opposite direction of current South-West Monsoon. So this won't turnout to form as a cyclone or storm. It will be hitting Central Andhra Pradesh (in-between Kakinada and Nellore) by 9th - 14th of June in semi-depression state (as a huge band of clouds covering entire SouthOrissa-AP-NorthTN). 

       ** The failure of this formation to turnout as a cyclone is this is South-West Monsoon and not North-East.

* So, as expected in my previous post (mentioned as June 12th), KTCC rains will be on the same days (June 9 - 15) and we even have chance for day time rain on these days. Let's hope the best.!

Image Source : NCICS

* Also MJO is arriving and supporting TN, location right above our head on the same days (June 9-15). So it's a good and satisfactory scenario to happen for TN.

* From June 10, the temperature will start to sag slowly and Jun 11-13 is the peak time for KTCC. Expecting the temperature shouldn't even touch 29-30°C with some good spell of rains.

* Even after June 15, the temperature remain to stay low below 32-33°C (KTCC).

*  There will be some pull-effect rains along the Ghat Areas of Kerala and TN on these days. Even Cauvery Catchment areas wil join this party.

* Expecting the waterflow to increase in Cauvery and give good inflow in all Cauvery Reservoirs / Dams.